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Puntzer World Cup 2026: The Outsiders S01E02
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Luke and Alex talk through the outsiders for the World Cup 2026. Morocco, Colombia, Ecuador, Norway & Portugal, plus some ramblings of a mad man!
X/Twitter: @ie_puntzer
Okay, welcome back to episode two of Puncers World Cup 2026. And last week we spoke about the favorites. Today we're gonna speak about uh well some outsiders. Uh with me again is former pro Alex Oprah, who will be a good person to speak to, who's got some uh playing time in some of these countries we'll speak we'll speak about today. Alex, welcome back.
SPEAKER_00Thank you. Look, uh last week was great, uh exciting that the World Cup is starting this week. I can't believe it. And the way obviously it's code with you know so many winners, I believe. Um and the outside favourites are exciting. So um yeah, I'm excited to have a chat with you about you know how's it all gonna go.
SPEAKER_02Cool, yeah. So today we kind of selected, we kind of pre-selected some teams that we thought were quite interesting, and I don't think there'll be any surprises here. I mean, Portugal are one of the teams that both Alex and myself thought might might do something in this tournament. Obviously, I mean we say outsiders, they're they're slight outsiders. I mean I think the the price on them is around nine to one, so not far not far off Argentina, who are five and a half, six to one. Uh uh but beyond that it gets a bit I think far more interesting. We've got Ecuador, who are 100 to 1, we've got Norway who are 150 to 1, we've got Morocco 150 to 1, and we've got Colombia to 250 to 1. I'm quite surprised about Colombia. I think we should start there, Alex. Colombia. What did Did you did you ever play in Colombia?
SPEAKER_00Uh I actually I didn't play. I actually was on trial with Milonarios uh in 2009. Uh they said no to me. So uh that was fine. And uh that's it, fair enough. It is what it is. I thought I was pretty good, but they were like, nope. And uh so and then I was coaching in Colombia in 2017 in a first division U-20 site. So for me, I just think that uh the squad they have, especially in the form with uh Luis Diaz, I think you know they they have something. And like you always know, World Cups anything can happen in any moment. And when as soon as you reach the sort of quarterfinal, there's an opening. There's something that can happen. The players they have, I don't want to say they're gonna win the World Cup, but you know, they they're they're very much in the in the moment because they they're the sort of side that England think they're obviously at the moment, oh we're great, we're in the semi-final, and Colombia just beat them. Colombia are not gonna go to win the World Cup, they're going to compete and make the country proud. And they will do well. So that's where I'm at with Denny.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I think um it's an interesting group because we've both we're gonna speak about Portugal as well, and they're obviously in the same group as Colombia, yeah. But then outside of that, they've got uh Dominican Republic of Congo and Uzbekistan, who which you would imagine that's a simple enough, straightforward enough uh six points from the two of those games.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I mean, as you said, Luke, like Colombia gonna go through. I think so. The fact the country and me, if if what nobody knows me, but I lived in Colombia for many years and I'm back there all the time. I'll be back there next month for the World Cup. Um they produce players left, right, and centre, and they produce players that are like they think not just about winning a league, they think about winning World Cups. They are the they're the kind of players that they have that are like, all right, we get out of this group, okay, the next whatever they present us, we're gonna we could actually maybe get there. They know the big hitters England, Spain, Argentina, France, so but yeah, you never know. But I think uh Colombia is gonna be a big, big threat that will take out some big guys that that we all think, you know, if they meet then, I don't know that meeting the next rounds who it might be, but uh Colombia will be a big threat. And the group stages I think pretty easy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean three teams put potentially going through. So it I try I was trying to look at the format of the World Cup and how like the path that these teams might have, and you can't really tell because it's a mess. It's a mess trying to work out what third place will finish it. Like it's just it's a complete disaster. So I think with the first three, you just kind of have to assume alright, these teams will go through, and then whoever they get, they get, and then it will get a bit more serious from the round of 16. But it's interesting, like I mean, you're talking very confidently of Colombia, and Luis Diaz, without question, has been one of the best players in Europe this year. But it's interesting that Jamez Rodriguez is still playing, uh Jefferson Lerma still playing, obviously, Crystal Palace. Um, good players, but they've been around a while. Um when I look up front, I I would have been really looking forward to seeing John Duran play for play for them and playing as the kind of set center forward with uh Jamás Rodriguez and Luis Diaz behind them, but obviously he's not coming to the tournament, so I'll be worried about them up front.
SPEAKER_00So if I if I ask you, Luke, a question in the sense of who'd you remember if I say Cameroon World Cup? Who do you remember? As a striker. As a striker, maybe you say maybe you say, like, I don't know. Yeah, but now I've now I've gone too far, and like he's thinking, oh god.
SPEAKER_02Uh I wasn't uh expecting the the homework, you know, but um so Roger Miller. No, I mean Samuel Edo's the obvious one. Sam anyway, Roger Miller, of course, he was like slightly before my time.
SPEAKER_00So when when we think about these well-cut memories, all I think of is Roger Miller played for Cameroon, and everyone's like, Oh, I was a kid. I was thinking, oh my god, this guy's amazing, and where's he from? Oh, he's from Cameroon. So obviously, I don't at the time we don't have computers, so we're like, where's Cameroon? And we're trying to look, and it's in Africa, but we're in Africa. That's what I love about children being educated, we're in Africa. And um, and you look at Valderama became the new guy. It's like the big hair, like, where's he from? Oh, he's from Colombia. So everyone makes their mark in a certain sense, and that's why I always believe that I know we're always about the favorites and everything, and but we have to always remember the outside people, what I'm saying to the betting guy, Colombia will reach the quarterfinal, semi-final. Colombia will do that, and they have players that their goal difference in their league, they scored 28 goals and they conceded 18. So you have to start to look at well, if they go into the group stages, they're gonna get out of that the next level. Who do they have? They have top players, they're the ones that are you know second round quarterfinals.
SPEAKER_02I mean, I think why do you have your doubts?
SPEAKER_00Like, why why do you have your doubts?
SPEAKER_02I look at the def well, so let's look, they scored 28 goals in qualifying, but they scored they conceded 18. That's quite a lot of people.
SPEAKER_00They scored they scored they scored the second most goals after Brisb Argentina.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, but they conceded the most goals out of the all the teams who qualified, they conceded the most goals.
SPEAKER_00So if if I say if I say to you, look, they finished third and they conceded 18 goals, which is terrible, they shouldn't do that. But if you do that in a World Cup and you score 28, but if you do that the way they're doing it, to scoring goals in three two or three games just to get to the next round, I prefer that over defensive.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, no, of course. I mean, to watch it is far more interesting. But obviously, John Duran isn't playing, and so they're relying heavily on Luis Diaz, who, of course, is a brilliant player. Uh, but Jamás Rodriguez, I mean, he's 34, he's arguably had his best years a long time ago, not just recently. But then, but then we look even at the defense, and it's Yeri Mina. I mean, he's only 31, but he's been around a long time. Davison Sanchez, he's only 29, but he's he's not probably that great a player. So, look, I I think the World Cups are won. I mean, it's hard to say any particular World Cup is won because of this reason, but I think what's clear.
SPEAKER_00They're won by emotion as well. They're won by emotion as well. Like, if if we if we what you said is 100% stats, is 100% like okay, A B C, but in the moment, they're all emotion because Colombia might say, okay, let's do it, let's just throw everybody up top and we're in. Costa Rica reached what was it, the 2014 semi-final. How how was that possible by stats? Impossible. So for me, with what they have, I think they're capable. If a betting man is gonna say minimum quarter final, they'll be there. Colombia will be in the quarterfinal. Okay. Um sorry to cut you off. Your opinion was something maybe different.
SPEAKER_03No, no, no.
SPEAKER_00No, no, it's good. I uh I was trying to cut you off and say, listen, I know Colombia's about my life, but no, no, I mean I mean to your point is about passion.
SPEAKER_02I think we saw that in the last World Cup with Argentina, you know. So that's right. Uh so no, I think I think that's I think that's a fair shout. You really like you really like Colombia. So before we move on, let's just talk about another bet that I think is quite interesting. Um so tournament goals scored betting odds. So on Colombia to score more than eight goals, you can get two and a half. And I think they're easily going to be. In what? In the whole tournament. If they score more more than 8.5 goals, the odds are seven to five. It's not obviously a huge price, but they have to score nine goals in the whole tournament. So, which is when we look at their group, they've got Congo and Uzbekistan. They they should be scoring goals there. I'm thinking they're scoring six at least six goals in the group stages.
SPEAKER_00They're gonna definitely score about five goals. I think Luis Diaz and everyone will fire in the group stages, they're gonna really fire, and then they're gonna come short about semi-finals. It's gonna be a bit oh, it's tough for me to say because I'm a Colombian fan. But yeah, I think it's gonna come short because what happens with Colombia is they they jump out of the group stage, they're firing. The second stage is gonna be that they're again firing, and then they keep going, and then everything dries up because you can't Luis Diaz can't keep going. There isn't any duran, and that we don't have a top score that's gonna really so I'm gonna say no.
SPEAKER_02Okay, fair enough. So you're going no on that.
SPEAKER_01No.
SPEAKER_02Alright, fair enough. Um, let's move it on now to Morocco. Um, Morocco obviously came through qualifying easily enough. They obviously had a great tournament the last time around. Um they're 150 to 1 to win the World Cup. Um, and in their group, they've got a very tough group. They've got Brazil, they've got Scotland, and they've got Haiti, which will be a gimme game, obviously, but they couldn't end up doing damage against the other against each other here. Uh teams battling for third place. Um, so what do you tell me what do you think about Morocco?
SPEAKER_00For me, I think Morocco will enjoy the group stage. I think they're very confident, very confident in the way that they're they're now successful on the world stage what they did. Everybody's looking at them like, alright, we can play. No one's looking at us as an outsider. I think Morocco will go to quarterfinals, they'll get out the group stage. Um they're very good defensively, and I think they're gonna stick to that and they're gonna counter like they did before, and they're gonna surprise teams. So anyone who's trying to place a bet against them in a certain way, like, oh, we're we're Brazil versus Morocco, no, no. Believe me, they're gonna come at you, they're gonna be there. Uh I don't see them getting to the semi-final because I think psychologically, a lot as a former player and things like that, that they're so happy to reach the quarterfinal that slowly these sort of players they burn out to say, all right, you know what, this is this is okay, we're good. Oh wow, we're suddenly in the quarterfinal. Should we push on? I don't I'm not sure they have more because with respect, some of them play in certain leagues where the demands are a bit different, uh individually think a bit differently. That's that's been honestly. Uh I think quarter finals, Morocco will will be there.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, they're an interesting team. They obviously did really well in the World Cup, and I think they kind of caught a few teams by surprise. And I think what will go in their favour this time as well, if they are to do well, is that they kind of have I mean, they're going to be acclimatized to some degree to the temperatures over there. They they played they played quite a slow style. Uh like I remember uh Amrabat, who's now playing for Ray Batist, he was really good. Um Man United ended up signing him for a while and he didn't do well in the Premier League. I think probably just too slow for the Premier League, but the way he plays, or the play the way he played in the la in Qatar four years ago, he has that kind of nice international style about him where he's kind of slow, but he can play, but he can play nice, he can kind of control it at that pace. Uh good pass or the ball when he has the time. So they could do something. I mean, I think the the biggest issue that they have is they're probably up against the two worst teams in different styles. They're up against Brazil on the they play Brazil in their first game.
SPEAKER_00But yeah, but what I'm saying is, Luca, you're talking about getting out the group stage.
SPEAKER_02I'm just talking about them to yeah, how far they can go.
SPEAKER_00And I think a lot of people get out the group stage. That that's for me is 100%.
SPEAKER_02You say that, but so of the 12 groups, only eight of the top three can go through. So the way I see it is they're gonna beat Haiti, obviously, because that's obvious. They're gonna get three points there. Brazil can be a 1-1.
SPEAKER_00Luke, Brazil can be a 1-1.
SPEAKER_02But that's my point. But they're playing Brazil in the first game. Brazil are gonna have the stadium packed, it's gonna be like a home game for Brazil.
SPEAKER_00Exactly, but the same as Argentina, last World Cup. I think that Morocco understands this pressure. That's that's for me. No one's scared of this anymore. And 1-1-0-0 can be the first game. Brazil are not a threat like that anymore, and Morocco understands the situation that they're big enough now with what they did last World Cup. And but it's because the the superstar around the world of everything is like Brazil. But Morocco, I believe easy can get a draw against Brazil.
SPEAKER_02Easy, yeah. I mean, look, in 98, the last time Scotland qualified, they got a draw on the uh with Brazil in in the first game. That's right. So, of course, these things can happen. But I I just think with Brazil, as we spoke about last week with Anchiladi, um they've got some interest, like they've obviously got really good talent. I think Brazil come out and win that game one-nil or two-nil.
SPEAKER_00Because can I yeah, can I see that little point where you're saying, and you know, uh Roger um Vinicius grabs that little winner as a penalty, and it's a bit of a you know, sloppy penalty, like something. Yeah. I'm not being impressed with Brazil whatsoever so far. So for me, I'm still Morocco can, but you know, Brazil can get a tricky 2-1 win, okay. But I'm still thinking Morocco are a strong there to hold their own.
SPEAKER_02To continue on, like let's say I'm right and Brazil win that game. Okay, then then Morocco play Scotland next, and there's a lot of pressure. Obviously, they know they're gonna beat Haiti, but there's a lot of pressure to get a result there. Scotland will have already played, they'll already have three points, and Scotland will just probably need a draw from that game. So it's gonna be a very different mindset going into that game and a draw, it might be good enough for both of them in a way, but it's in Boston, so I think there'll be a lot of Scottish fans there.
SPEAKER_00I think, yeah, I I think the I watched Scotland play Bolivia the other night. It's not about Bolivia being not so good at the moment, it's seeing how good Scotland are in the way that they're playing, because Bolivia can be a bad side at the moment, but you you can still win 1-0, like England did last night. I know there was a plan, they only won 1-0 against New Zealand, but Scotland were absolutely rampant to say, hey, we need to score goals to actually keep going. That there's and I love that. Being a coach myself, Scotland were 4-0. They know to get to the next stage, they have to win games by scoring goals and attacking, and they have the players. So for me, I'm a big back-in fan of Scotland right now, big back-in fan. Like and so and I wouldn't be surprised, Luke, to be fair, that Scotland could even beat Brazil. I'm gonna be honest. I can see it because I know I might be crazy, I know I was like, oh, okay. But Scot uh Brazil are gonna do their stuff, and Scotland can win 1-0 easy.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, for sure. They can do it. For sure. I mean, by the time they play each other, there's a good chance both are already true anyway, and then anything and like anything happens, you know.
SPEAKER_00So if everyone thinks about the last World Cup, Brazil will struggle in every stage.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00So we shouldn't always think about just the name, because that's what everybody does, uh, which is true. Well, you know, it's life Brazil and Argentina and something, but no one thinks in depth in the moment, and Scotland come out 100%. They beat Morocco, they beat Brazil, that's it, they're in the next round. And I think that's what Scotland are gonna do.
SPEAKER_02I do think there's an interesting bet um Morocco to get five points, so just five points in the group stages. So that's the way I see that is they'll obviously get three points. One win and true draw exactly. I think so. I think that's an interesting you get 11 to 4 on that. You I mean that's for nearly 40 quid, 30, 30, 87.50 for a tenner. So I think I don't think that's a bad shout, to be honest. Uh, because I could easily see a win in two draws, you know.
SPEAKER_00To get five points, Luke. Uh yeah, you know, you know, that's the good one.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I like it one. But like I say, they get six and the the bet is bust. So let's see. Let's see what they can do. Uh all right. I think one very interesting country that is no surprise to anyone. Another country you lived in, uh Norway. Um obviously they're coming into this with a big kind of uh well-known team. They've got the best striker in the world, probably the best striker in the world, Erling Halland. They've got Martin Odegaard, no, but Harry Kane, Harry Kane plays for Bayernich. Uh the Irish, the Irish Harry Kane. Well, I think his grandma was from Ireland, but yeah, she was. Um, but they have like they've got Erling Halland, Martin Odegaard. Obviously, everyone knows these guys. Most people are familiar with Oscar Bob, Alexander Soroth, who we saw for Atletico Madrid in the uh in the Champions League, and they've got it, they've got another number of um Premier League and League One players, so uh Vas Backar as well as this is a defender for Brentford. Um and one player that looks really interesting as 21-year-old winger plays for Leipzig in Germany, is Antonio Nusse. He looks like a really interesting player, he's already scored eight times for for Norway. So I'm really looking forward to see them. And I'm I'd be straight out with it. If it wasn't in the the crazy heat that we're going to have in the US, I'd be back in these, you know. But I just don't know if their squad is deep enough to put up with the demands of what it's going to require, you know.
SPEAKER_00But are you saying to win the World Cup?
SPEAKER_02Man, I think I'm not no, I'm saying if it had been anywhere else, if it had been a European World Cup or somewhere without the heat that we're going to have, I wouldn't be surprised. Like they they could they've got a good team. The defense isn't world class, but they're a good unit. If you look at their uh qualifying group, it's always hard. Like you can't compare South American qualifying group to European qualifying groups because in Europe they'll have one tough game, in South America, they'll have almost all their games are tough. They all in South America it's so much. Different. But with Europe, they they only conceded five goals in their eight games. They scored plenty of goals. They scored 37 goals in their in their um in their eight games. So I just think had it be been anywhere else, I I think this World Cup is going to be the biggest World Cup, the most mended games in the in very hot temperatures, and so they're going to need a steep squad. Whoever's going to win it will probably be the team who has the the well probably white fans are going to win it. But um but yeah, anywhere else, and I'd be having Norway up there. I just I think it's too the conditions are against them, unfortunately, this time.
SPEAKER_00Well no, I think um no, I don't think the conditions are against them because they're against everybody. And France ah France, I think that Norway have a great chance to get out the group 100%. Um 37 goals, five against Yeah, it means there's there's a certain player called Haaland, and someone's gonna get them somewhere. I think I don't know, you know, Luke, what what happens is I I kind of know these player psychologies. What happens is every player they always have an individual moment where they start to drop off, where they're like, oh, you know what? I'm fine, like we we're Norway, we got to the second round, and I can I can go to Marbella, you know, for the next month, so I'm just gonna, you know, we're not gonna win the World Cup. That no, I know it sounds funny, but this is what they do. Being a former player, like it is anyone gonna be a Roy Keen and say, Norway, come on, let's let's really get ourselves there. Come on, they do themselves individually so proud. You've got to remember, Luke, that all these countries, they all play in leagues when they before they come for England, Spain, and uh, and and everywhere and and and and France. That when they go back to their country, they're just proud to play for their country and do it. But they are a good team, Norway, they've always been a good team, and I live there, I know the culture, I know how they think, and they're actually happy to be like, we we got out the group stage, we're good, we can all go home now because the Norwegian people are absolutely amazing people that they're like, wow, we we got there, thank you, and they're polite, whereas in anyone else, you'll be like, you bunch of motherfuckers, like you can't, you know, this and that. No, Norwegian would be like, guys, you've done a great job, you know, thank you very much. So the Norwegians know that. So I don't because I know the culture, any betting guy, look, they're gonna get out of the group and they're not gonna go any further. That that's my that's my real, you know, living in Norway and never think.
SPEAKER_02So that that's a uh that's a brave show. Norwegians mentally weak, says Alex Oprah.
SPEAKER_00No, because if I say to you, look, where have they ever gone past everyone remembers them beating Brazil?
SPEAKER_02But they've never one team like this.
SPEAKER_00Tour Andrew Flo, yeah, but it's one player. If you saw the goals, Mancisi goals, who scores all of them?
SPEAKER_02Alexander Sorlot can score goals, uh Oscar Bob as a player, Antonio Nusa.
SPEAKER_01I'm not saying yeah, yeah, no, you're right.
SPEAKER_02Like they're good. And they still have France in their group. Yeah, they they have France in the group. Obviously, they've got Senegal in the group, which will be it's a it's a particularly tough group, and even Iraq in these conditions are not going to be a walkover. But um, but assuming they can get at least third place, you just never know. And they've obviously got the quality, and I think with the World Cup, the temperatures are gonna be so extreme that we're not gonna be seeing wide open football, we're gonna be seeing very slow football, and then suddenly, boom, false that on it go.
SPEAKER_00So for the talk, right now, as Luke, you keep saying, the whole it's for everybody, the whole temperature is gonna be for everyone.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, but there's certain people who will be more used to it than others. We saw that in Italy in '94. Yeah, yeah. But you should watch Ireland how they got on in '94.
SPEAKER_00Which country is that?
SPEAKER_02Which country is that's John Aldridge.
SPEAKER_00Uh no, I know. And they still but they still be Italy. And um, so what I mean is I hundred percent you're right. I know, look, this whole drinking every 20 minutes. Look, I watched England the other night, I was just like, oh, here we go, you know. And 100%, you know, health and safety, and uh, but I Norway can't hide anymore. For me, they can't be like, oh, we're not, you know, we're nor we're Nordic, like we're up there, and we're no. I lived there as well, and it was absolutely brutal in the sense of where I was cleaning snow off the field before training, and I was like, what am I doing? Oh, I want to go back to Colombia, South America. That's how every guy thinks. But I know that they're great people, they they fight for their cause, but I know they're happy to just do their diligence. Like they're gonna go first round, second, they're like, okay, France beat us. Okay, France are in the group. Um, Colombia beat us. And that's how that the passion of Norwegians to really get somewhere more. I've never seen it. And obviously, I believe I'm right because I've never done it.
SPEAKER_02So yeah, yeah. Fair enough. Uh Norway to do exactly as uh exactly the bare minimum. Um beat Iraq, lose to lose to France and get stuffed by Senegal.
SPEAKER_00That's it. Out the group, next stage. Uh yeah, Norwegians are happy, and then that's it. Luke, I'm telling you, that's what's gonna happen.
SPEAKER_02That's a nice holiday. Yeah, the US was great, stopped off in Vegas.
SPEAKER_00Everything's gonna be exactly that, and you know the Norwegians are actually happy, they're like, you know, that's fine.
SPEAKER_02Like so. Alright, cool. Well, uh, that's Norway uh rammed out the tournament. Moving on to another former Alex Opera colony, uh Ecuador.
SPEAKER_00Wow, what a country. No, amazing country. Um right now, oh I think they're gonna be a big surprise, and they're gonna be very defensive. And they're gonna be a big threat. Uh there I think their game plan is gonna be defend, transition to attack, and they're gonna get out of the group, and they're gonna do things stage by stage. They'll get out of the group, they're good, they got top players. The players that are playing for Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, Milan, Atlético Minero, like I mean, you know, i I a lot of people around the world, even when I was playing in Ecuador, I realized as well, I was thinking, how people didn't think that Ecuador is, you know, a top football country. And now slowly, you know, they're producing all the players.
SPEAKER_02I think Ecuador could do really well in this tournament.
SPEAKER_00I think because yeah, but do you know why? Because they're not they're not yeah, but no, but they're not trying to win the tournament as such. Yeah. Because they're not they're they're actually now gonna be the nasty dogs that are gonna be like, okay, let's play England, and suddenly England they they lose to England.
SPEAKER_02This is exactly the type of team England would lose to.
SPEAKER_00That no, that exactly, that's what I'm saying. They would lose to an Ecuador because these guys are ready to do it all because they're all in a good stead, all of them. Age group, players, where they're playing. And I know Ecuadorians, I know how they think they're gonna they're gonna go all out.
SPEAKER_02The age is a good point. They've only got two players over 30. One of them is Enna Valencia, who most people will be aware of. He's their forward, he's scored plenty of goals for them, and then the other is a goalkeeper, uh Hernan Galindez, who's who's uh 39. So yeah, he looks like he's gonna start, but I mean 39 is not the oldest in this tournament. But like they obviously have everyone will know Hincapie from from Arsenal, everyone everyone knows uh Pacho from PSG, who's been fucking amazing for the last two seasons for PSG. He's been an absolute machine. Um and there's a few other interesting players. There's like the likes of uh Kendry Paez, who's um I think with River Plate. Yeah, but he's on loan. I think he signed for Chelsea. Chelsea. Chelsea, yeah, yeah, yeah. So there's some really interesting talent, obvious and obviously Moises uh Casilo, as you already mentioned, but I the obvious thing is they're going to be defensive, as they should be. They only conceded five goals in qualifying, which is incredible. The next best was Paraguay and uh Argentina both conceded ten. So the defense is amazing. They're gonna be well conditioned playing in Ecuador. Maybe you can tell us something about what that's like playing in that altitude, but also just on the final point there, um they're not even gonna try to score goals because they don't really have anyone up to do that, so they're just gonna sit back.
SPEAKER_00The thing is, I I really I'm really interested to see the tactics of Ecuador because you know, with with the way they qualified, you know, 10 teams, well 11 teams, but you know, in the qualifiers to concede 14 goals is like you know, you're playing the likes of Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, you know, two or three times in a row. Ecuador has always been a place where it's it's right in the middle of South America in the sense of it's like Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay, and then suddenly Ecuador, you know, is there and they fight with Peru all the time. So when I first moved there, um I signed for a club called Deportivo Alcas, who now plays in the is a first division club there. And I remember um the altitude being 2,500 meters up, and I was like, oh, that's fine, no problem. You you know, as you're 23, 24 years old, and I was trying to say, Oh, that's okay. So um I received the ball, but I thought I received the ball, but I didn't, and it just went under my foot, and I was like, Oh, all right. Suddenly it's like, oh my god, like what happened there? So anyway, the play went on, blah, blah, blah. Second ball came along and it done the same thing. It went under my foot. And I was thinking, oh, okay, I gotta I gotta talk to someone here, like something's going wrong. And I remember seeing little yellow dots in my eyes, some stars, like whatever it might be. And I went over to the coach. You shouldn't do that because he's the first team coach. You don't want to go and complain, you know. Like, I said, Oh, you know, coach, I have to sit down a bit. I'm not sure what's happened. He said, No, no, you know what's happened to you, your altitude. Don't worry about it, just take some time, just sit down. And I was thinking, but I feel fine, it's all good. Luke, the ball was coming as a clean class. I didn't even have a I didn't even have a pressure on me, nothing. And the ball just ran out of my foot twice. And I was thinking, oh my god, this is what it's like to be in altitude where you think you're kind of you know involved and don't worry about that, I'll be fine. Um, after that, there wasn't any kind of um, you know, I felt sick or no, no, it's fine. It that's what basically can happen. So I realized when Argentina go there and Brazil, they realize that they have to prepare a little bit because, like I just said to anyone who's listening, a ball can come along and you're you're a bit delayed. It's it's only about air. That's it. So I played air for two years, a year and a half. Um, great players, very passionate about just again trying to reach the next stage. They're not trying to be the world champions. So be very careful of Ecuador because believe me, they will get out the group, and then they will plan a new, as I said, like like the other, like you said, Luke, the other teams, once you get out of the group, you're in a dangerous situation to actually now prepare tactically. So they're another one that's gonna be a tough one to beat.
SPEAKER_02So I'll tell you a bet that I really like for Ecuador Ecuador to be eliminated by a penalty shootout eight to one. Because you can see them with their defense going nil-nil in full time, going nil-nil extra time and going to penalties.
SPEAKER_00Actually, you got a point there. I like that. All right, I'll give you that. You're actually good because Ecuador will take everything to their strength. If they go to penalties, their players will understand everyone just score. It's like goalkeeper, you're up. And I think the nation is is happy with that. So that's actually a good one. That's actually, you know.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you don't need to sound so surprised about that, you know.
SPEAKER_00No, because because I'm already thinking about, you know, with me, the players and the fans and the country, that's how I think. Because I've lived in Brazil, uh, Ecuador, Colombia. So I know they're like, just give us a nice time, a bit that's that's how they're gonna be. They don't expect to win it anything.
SPEAKER_02Um all right, so another one for Alice's talk of uh mental fortuity. Ecuador.
SPEAKER_00I don't know why I lived all these places, Jesus Christ.
SPEAKER_02Yes, it explains a lot of stuff, but I couldn't just say good time and a beer. Okay, cool. So where we go next. Alright, last one, last question on Ecuador. Do you think they can win it? Do you think there's any chance they can win it? Do you think their their fitness, the the high altitude gives them any kind of advantage playing in heat? I don't know. Do you can you see a way they win it?
SPEAKER_00I can give you an easy answer, but can I say anything more? They're not gonna win it.
SPEAKER_02Okay, so that there's your answer. I mean, go on. If you want if you want to say something else.
SPEAKER_00No, are they gonna they're not gonna win it, but are they gonna be in contenders running and okay, like I said, they get held the second round and boom, everyone says, oh. Yes. But you when you arrive to France, England, Spain, Argentina, no, no chance, no way. They are very good to to be what they did in the uh qualifiers to finish second, very good, and that's the top level like in the world where a lot of people forget that uh South American or Europe, oh you know, England finished second behind Spain, and oh we're gonna no to finish second in South America is is is like wow.
SPEAKER_02But I don't I think sometimes in Europe people don't appreciate that in South America the qualifying campaign is so much more difficult. They don't understand that uh game in Brazil offers a completely different uh it offers a completely different challenge to a game in Ecuador and that offers a completely different game challenge to a game in in Colombia or Peru, and each one is unique. And in Europe we're so used to these incredibly high standard stadiums, perfect pitches, all three level, like there's no difference, you know. Whereas in South America, the the distance they have to travel, it's just a different ball game, you know, it's a different world. Okay, so uh the takeaway there is Ecuador can't win it. Alright, so last team for today, uh Portugal. So like I say, I mean they're probably not they're outside they're probably just about outside the favourite, but um nine to one, so obviously the sixth favourite in terms of that. I think the big thing I have a lot of insight on Portugal in the sense I've watched them a lot over the last few years because they played Ireland, so um I can tell you right away that they're not that good a team, and I think that's largely down to Ronaldo. Um despite the goals he scores, I think if we look at the group they came through, the they came through obviously against Ireland, Hungary, and Armenia, they scored 20 goals, but nine of those goals came in the last game against Armenia, so yeah, it's not like they're not as free scoring as they would suggest as that would suggest. But that being said, they've got a comfortable enough group with the Dominican Republic of Congo, Uzbekistan, and then obviously Colombia, who we know will be a tough game, but with the two other teams, they should both get through that easy enough. How do you see?
SPEAKER_00Uh definitely, as you said, uh I'll quickly obviously jump on. I think they'll get out of the group. Yeah, don't want to bore anyone there. I think definitely they'll jump out a couple of wins, they'll do that. I think Ronaldo is always gonna be uh a bit of a distraction, even though he's one of the best of all time and everything. So, but I think the players that they have, the midfield wise, that they can really if the coach does what he needs to do outside of Ronaldo, hopefully Ronaldo doesn't cause too much of a problem like he did in the last one. What was it, the last one or the Euros, where he got a bit, you know, like he got taken off and he was upset and all that.
SPEAKER_02I think that was the Euros, wasn't it?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, was it the Euros?
SPEAKER_02I can't remember.
SPEAKER_00And it was because it was something where, you know, but Portugal, Luke, like these guys have some of the best players in the world. We're talking now, when a player comes all together to the World Cup, they become different machines. Because it's a different mindset. They all say, you know what, we're here, let's just do it. Like, you know, I understand a little bit like I said about Norway, I didn't mean to be to be disrespectful. I wasn't saying nothing like that. I was just meaning Norwegians are happy to be in that kind of a little bit of bracket. But the Portuguese, they're arrogant, great people, and they they want to say, hey, we're here, let's do it. So that's why I still think they're a big, like tricky country that can do something, and the players they have is unbelievable.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, look, the players, if we look at them on paper, they can compete, they can compete with France and Argentina and Spain. But the reality is though, they're still being like maybe I've got this totally wrong, but I assume Cristiano Ronaldo's going to start every game, and if he doesn't, it's got it's going to be a problem.
SPEAKER_00I know, but that's what they're saying right now. So he's gonna be a problem because the same thing with Neymar. So what do we do? Open up a new conversation. What do we do with with these sort of players now in life that the player doesn't even say, yeah, don't play me? Or Ronaldo says, Listen, don't play me. Uh oh, happy to sit. So now they cause more problems for their country and media that they're happy to actually realize, like, what are you guys doing? Just step aside and let this guy scored you know this amount of goals, and Neymar's trying to like Ronaldo.
SPEAKER_02It's not up to Ronaldo or Neymar, it's up to the coaches to be and I the federation, yeah, and the federation. And I wonder sometimes are the coaches empowered? Like, is Roberto Martinez allowed not to call up Cristiano Ronaldo? I wonder that because surely he can see that Portugal would be better without him.
SPEAKER_00And you know what? In my insight, in my football world, it's the I already know that the the the coach will never do this moment to less empower a guy like Ronaldo to sit on a bench on a state world stage because he'll want to make history for this player, and there's this whole thing, and that's the thing where all these players, when they get to the uh Neymar 40, uh Ronaldo 41, and they want to give them like a bit of a favor. And if they don't do it, they're like, oh, you know, because Roberto Martinez is gonna say, well, after this job, I'm I can I'm just gonna go to Barbados anyway. Yeah, so why not just play Ronaldo? This is country, it's not my country. Ancelotti, oh, it's not my country. I'm Italian, I'm not Brazilian. Just play bring Neymar. So I see this, it's a scapegoat kind of thing. It's like bring Angelotti, yes, an unbelievable coach, one of the greatest ever. And then you have a little Neymar moment. When it's like, whoa, here we go, pop star moment. Okay, just bring him. Ronaldo, not playing well, blah, blah, blah. Ah, Martinez, oh, what should I do? You know what? I don't have a sleepless night. I just, hey, I'm gonna play Ronaldo. Because everything always comes down to just play him. Because when men argue, they're gonna argue about stats. Ronaldo against uh what's his name? Tan Hag. I'm the best. If if Tan Hag wants to uh argue with him, hey, but I scored all these goals, I've done this. What's what can he say as a coach? Because they're not coaching on the session, he's not coaching him as a coaching point. He's asking him, like, Tan Hag's gonna say, Yeah, you know what, you're right. So I don't like the players that have empowerment of their stats to a coach. It's not fair. Because they have to appreciate that a coach has to realize when you're not inform, it doesn't matter about your stats, you have to respect the coaches seeing a view of this guy has scored four goals in seven games, and you haven't done nothing. But suddenly you've scored 150 goals in 100 games for Portugal as an example, and you deserve to play. That's my biggest thing. I don't like Luke. So for me, if you want to start any argument on that, I think I would rather say Ronaldo, listen, sit down. But Ronaldo will come along and he will say, Yeah, but I'm the greatest of all time. So he threatens the coach.
SPEAKER_02But but this is my whole point. Like, I don't I agree that Ronaldo should, but I don't think it's I think it has to be the coach's decision. And if it's not his decision, well then it's the Federation's decision. Like they don't do it. And I'll worry, I'll worry with like I worry, I don't I don't lose any sleepover, but um I wonder if football associations like Portugal, like Brazil, are just too worried about losing money if the superstar isn't there, you know. And here we have an example, and here we have an example of Portugal who could on paper win this tournament, but I don't think anyone thinks they will, and I think most people who think they won't is because Ronaldo. And it's a shame for them because uh Gonzalo Ramos looked like he was going to be a really good player, you know, and he's just hasn't been the last year or two, he just hasn't really been a player that maybe we thought he would be. Now he's still only 24, so he's still young, but yeah, you don't have the confidence now that if Ronaldo did go that he could step in, whereas I would have two years ago would have been said, like, get the hell away, Christian. He couldn't have done any more. You know, they say young players have to come up and take it from the he did that. He scored a hat trick when Ronaldo was was uh suspended in the line. That that that was right, and but and and what happens the next game? Ronaldo's back and he's straight back in the team.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it it's a great point, and this is why uh uh football look has gone in a way where it's like everyone is trying to get stats and achievements, and we realized as soon as it started about Messi and Ronaldo, everything stayed the same. So now Neymar has jumped on that. Now I'm not saying that uh Messi is uh you know he's done everything and you know, etc. etc. And he still does it, and Ronaldo scores his goals, and but when they have a bad form of five or six games or whatever it might be, the player won't ever say, you know what, uh coach uh start Ramos. They will always have an arrogance that they're so loved, and they are they like, oh, I have 77 goals, I've got to do this, I've got to do that. Neymar is the same. So hopefully, when I get to that level of coaching, I might just make the biggest mistake and say, you know what, you Neymar, you're uh uh you know, you're not playing, or an elder, you're not gonna play. And I'd love to cause the controversy because the moment that happens, Neymar in Santos, I remember a year ago when the coach took him off, he he erupted. So we realize that the federations haven't said what's happening here. Like no one's taking control that these guys are actually running their own federation. That you bring Roberto Martinez, great experienced Premier League coach, amazing coach, and Ronaldo is gonna play most of this World Cup because Ronaldo is gonna break more records and he's gonna want to be, you know, etc. And if he doesn't play and he sits on the bench and Portugal lose, now Neymar's a bit of a different case. Messi, he's fit, so he's good, and that's what I love about him. He's a fluent player, he's always been, and he doesn't care as well. If he sat on the bench, he'd be like, all right, bring me on. He doesn't worry about that. So you see the arrogance of other players that they're they're fighting for records. So the coach and him, it's either fire him or fire me. The Federation will say, Okay, coach, you're gone. So Portugal is gonna be a challenging one because Bruno Fernandez is like on fire. He's like, Really, let's go, guys. But Ronaldo's gonna cause another problem because when you're so rich, so famous, you're always gonna cause a disruption because in a moment where you don't feel good, you have your own backing to say, Well, I think I'm the one of the best ever, anyway. So unfortunately, it's sad, Luke. It's sad like that.
SPEAKER_02I really, you know, yeah, it's sad because I'm looking at the team and I'd love to see, like you say, Bruno Fernandez, uh Vitina, Ruben Neves, Shao Neves, all these I and imagine they were playing into forwards like Gonzalo Ramos, um Rafael Leao, I mean Pedro Neto. These are players that can do serious damage, man. And it's a shame. Joe Felix is kind of not the player, I think.
SPEAKER_00I asked you, I asked you a question, Luke, but why do we always think the greats of the other World Cup or the other one have to always score the goals of the World Cup? They don't. Like you just said, these new guys or the other ones, they could be the new future of scoring goals in World Cups. Why is it always Maradona? Um what a player. But then you had Kenija, you had Batistuta scoring goals, you had Lopez scoring goals, you had England, Owen, Shearer, you know, Rooney came along. Like you have the shit, but now it's like Neymar has to play and Ronaldo has to play. It's like, well, where's the other guys?
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00And that's what it it's become a media kind of event where I'm like that's what it is.
SPEAKER_02It's the commercial like we're talking about the World Cup being played in the US. It's going to have water breaks in each, even in states where the temperatures aren't going to be bad. It's going to have a half an hour, half an hour break for half-time for the final, so they can have a half-time show. Like it's obviously the most commercialized, uh, most Americanized World Cup you've ever had. And the game has gone that way. I mean, I I heard about I heard uh Tuchel was talking about uh the detail that goes in and NFL set pieces, and I'm like, why are football coaches taking their taking their learnings? I'm not saying you can't learn from other sports, of course you can. But the idea that these guys they want to tab everything down, and we see I think Arsenal is a great example with Mikel Arteta. He wants to control every bit of the game. You see him on the sideline, he's like constructing, running up and down the touchline like in the Illuminati, telling telling the players everything to do, telling them which fucking hand to wipe their arse with, you know.
SPEAKER_00And Luke, you've got to remember, not you, you know, but these coaches that are doing that, and I I am a coach myself, and I'm very grounded with the way I observe everything, not saying I don't want to be in Arteta's shoes right now to win the Premier League. Correct. Congratulations to him, amazing. But when everything comes around again, you forget. Wait a minute. Oh shit. He just took a throw in from there, and it was a long throw in. Oh shit, what am I gonna do? And he just crossed it and he headed in. That was it, it was a goal. Oh fuck. Oh, what am I gonna do? And the train, yeah, yeah. Oh, but we trained from, you know, if he crosses, you know, all five of you are in there, and I'm thinking the boys are like, and being a former player, you're a player, you know, all the audience who might be a good player, they're thinking, fucking hell, man. Like, what was that? Like, why why suddenly like you're trying to do and they just scored a quick little cheeky header at the back post? Yeah, and when you become that robotic style, it's very risky and scary. And I like Arteta, don't get me wrong, but I'm not clopp understood. Listen, we're gonna conceive goals, but we've got to keep scoring more than them. And I'm a coach like that, and we we will concede, but we have to focus on scoring. If we can get our shape at the back and we can, you know, set pieces, what can we do? We we set up what we can manage. We can't I can't we can't hire a coach. And suddenly Arteta has that, but he's lost the personality of wait a minute, think about what is natural. If you go by natural, you can't hire. But because Arsenal can hire people to do this, you've lost control of the natural moment. So when he's scoring the goals, he's like, Oh yeah, great, and my guy came on and he done that, but yeah, but Arteta, you didn't do that, he done that. Or he staged it. But what about when you're you're on your own and you're now playing against a League Two club in the champion uh in the FA Cup, and then Pete Coach says, Well, I don't know what to do here. What are you gonna do? So, you know, you have to always stay involved with where the game really came from, and that's where I'm a you know, I love that coaching. I'm a fast attacking coach, I love defending, but transition fast, but you gotta stay real to what is real.
SPEAKER_02But I agree, and I think it's no coincidence that if we look at who are the most successful Premier or Champions League managers, it's Carlo Ancelotti, and he's famously a manager who lets the players play. He has the best, he just tells the players, and even people will say, Oh, it's easy when you're Real Madrid or whatever. But even when he went to Everton, alright, he didn't win the league or anything, but his first season was very good, and he had James or Hamas Hamas de la Liga is playing really good football because he trusted him. He said, just go and play. And um, and look, I mean, we've kind of gone off topic here. Tell me, are Portugal gonna win the World Cup?
SPEAKER_01Are they going to? Yeah. No. Do you know why? Ronaldo.
SPEAKER_00Bruno Fernandez has has gone past Ronaldo in the highlight of football and and and everything, and Ronaldo wants to achieve things to have kind of like presidential status. Uh, like he he's gone on that. He's obviously he's a fantastic player, what he's done. But he's now saying, you know what, if I can score another three, four goals at the World Cup, and maybe I can so he thinks fantasy for himself. Bruno Fernandez is like, no, I need we need to just we need to worry this, man. I don't think Ronaldo will back him. Ronaldo will then be like, you know what, let me score a couple of goals and then I'm good. That that's what I think he's gonna do. Because he's gonna break another record. Fernandez will be carrying the whole team, and there will be a big eruption, there'll be a big fallout. That's what I think. Alright. Because I like that.
SPEAKER_02So uh I uh Portugal to win the Girl Cup, no, Portugal will end up killing each other, having a royal rumble type uh change in the change in real.
SPEAKER_00If you want to put on a bet on that, I'll put on a bet on that.
SPEAKER_02Poor Cristiano Ronaldo will have his leg broken and won't be able to play the rest of the tournament. As a result, if Ronaldo can't play, no one else can play, so he'll take everyone home. So all right, cool. So there we have it. Uh Portugal, Ecuador, Norway, Morocco, and Colombia.
SPEAKER_00So I want everyone to know that Luis Diaz is one of the best players in the world for Colombia. Yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02We know that because we lost the Champions League.
SPEAKER_00So if you're putting a bet on the the attacking teams of them five, Haaland, yes, but Luis Diaz is a midfielder attacker, and I would put my money on that kind of player.
unknownYeah.
SPEAKER_02Alright, I love it. Thank you, Alex. Uh, next time you hopefully, I think what we'll do is have after kind of between the group stages and the round of 32, we'll have another chat then. Um lot of games between now and then, but hopefully we'll have a better idea because at the moment it's still a it's still such a crazy the way the format is, it's still so crazy, so few teams get knocked out. Yeah, we'll have a much better, clear, uh, much clearer view in a few weeks' time. So yeah, I'm looking forward to it. So um thanks very much.
SPEAKER_00Thanks very much, mate.